Is Ovechkin a Better Goal Scorer than Gretzky?

Obviously it would be impossible to tell who the better goal scorer is because Ovechkin didn’t play in the 80’s and Gretzky doesn’t play now.  But it’s fun to think about because Ovechkin and Gretzky are two of the greatest goal scorers in league history.  It’s important to remember throughout this article that I’m only referring to goals scored and not points or assists.

It’s very much a fact that goalies have gotten better over time when you look at the league average in save% and Goals Against Average for each NHL season since these stats were recorded.  Pads are bigger, strategies are polished and the overall skill-set of today’s NHL net-minders are at an all-time high.  So if we use this difference to compare Ovechkin’s and Gretzky’s top goal scoring seasons, will it give us some sort of a comparison?  Yes it will, but the amount of emphasis you place on this comparison is completely up to you.

While I don’t have the stats for goalies save% against each player and each player only, I do have the league average for save% that has been recorded for each season since the NHL started recording this stat in 1983-84.  Gretzky scored his career high in goals [92] in 1981-82, before the league started tracking save%, so I’ll use his next best season [1983-84] when he scored 87 goals.

At the end of the 1983-84 season, the league average in save% for all goalies, was .873%.  Gretzky scored 87 goals that season (5 goals short of his career high.)  At the league average in save%, that means he would have scored 87 goals on 685 shots.  If Gretzky were to take that many shots against the league average in save% of .909%, which is what it was in 2007-08 when Ovehkin scored his career high in goals [65], he would have scored 62 goals which would be three shy of Ovechkin.  Close but Ovechkin has a slightly better total. 

Using the same formula, let’s see what it tells us about how many goals Ovechkin would perhaps have scored if he played in the NHL in 1983-84.  Once again, at the end of the 2007-08 season, the league average in save% for all goalies was .909%.  Ovechkin scored 65 goals that season.  At the league average in save%, that means he would have scored 65 goals on 714 shots.  If Ovechkin were to take that many shots against the league average in save percentage of .873% in 1983-84, he would have scored 91 goals which would be four more goals then Gretzky scored.  Once again Ovechkin would have a slightly better total but in Gretzky/Ovechkin standards, these goal differences are a matter of only a game or two.

Using this formula, The Great One and The Great 8 compare close to the same when it comes to their goal scoring abilities.  I don’t know why, but this came as a bit of a surprise for me.  I understand it’s not the perfect comparison but an interesting one.  Obviously we’ll never know because Gretzky will never square off against today’s NHL goalies.  But we can’t help but wonder and as Gretzky stated his self, he can’t help but wonder either:

"Mike Bossy and Brett Hull were probably the two purest goal scorers I ever saw in my career and I got excited to play against them because I wanted to see, 'Do I belong on the same sheet of ice as they are on?'" Gretzky, 52, told NHL.com Tuesday from his annual fantasy camp. "That's why I would have loved to compete against a guy like Zdeno Chara, go head-to-head against Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin." (Source NHL.com)

"That's competition and that's what it is all about," Gretzky said. "I would relish that opportunity, but unfortunately it's not going to happen. I would need Doc Brown from 'Back to the Future.” (Source NHL.com)

 

BY: ZACH HART

 

Sources

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_Gretzky, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Ovechkin, http://www.nhl.com/ice/blogpost.htm?id=13491

Nats Bullpen

With the announcement of Ross Detwiler going to the bullpen, it seems as though the bullpen is mostly set. Here is what the opening day 'pen should look like:

Closer-Rafael Soriano RHP

Setup man-Tyler Clippard RHP

Middle relief- Craig Stammen RHP, Jerry Blevins LHP, Drew Storen RHP

Long relief: Ross Detwiler LHP, Tanner Roark RHP Ross Ohlendorf RHP or Taylor Jordan RHP

The righty long reliever is still up in the air as of this point. The decision will probably come down to Ohlendorf's health with Roark or Jordan going to Syracuse if he is healthy. The battle for the 5th starter is still between those two young guys. I'd be a little surprised if Roark didn't win it, as I've stated previously on this blog.

Talking Halak Trade with the Junkies

This morning I called into the Junkies on 106.7 to talk about the Caps. One of the first questions they asked: What's your feelings on the Halak trade. I didn't get to finish everything I had to say, so I'll finish here.


I began by talking about how excellent Halak played against the (President's Trophy winning) Caps in the playoffs and I got the response from the Junkies that I was expecting. "But that was 4 years ago!" Which is understandable. But has he been bad since then? Not really. This season he has 24-9-4 record and a 2.23 GAA. At 28 years old, the guy has accomplished more then goalies that have 10 years playing time on him.


Holtby hasn't been the most consistent goalie this season. But the bad news is, if you pull up his career stats, he has gotten worse every season and that's not what you want to see from an up and coming goalie. He's famous for making a few incredible saves and then giving up a should-be save...or 3. I know the defense is partly to blame and that brings me to my next point. Isn't it amazing that in last nights game in Philly, Holtby gets pulled for Grubauer and the Caps score four goals? I know it sounds silly, but it's obvious. The Caps have played better when someone other then Holtby is in the net. I'm expecting Halak to get the start against Boston tonight so let's use it as a test of this theory.


In the end, Halak may or may not work out. But the fact is, Neuvy wanted out of Washington. He may not have requested it as often and through the media (like Erat), but he did ask for it so he needed to go. Other players were questioning where his head was and when that happens, it's a good idea to rid the locker room of that headache.


Thanks for having me on 106.7!


Zach From Haymarket
Shades of Red D.C.

Bryce Harper is a monster.

Shot taken after the blowout of the Mets today where Harper hit a foul ball about a million feet, then hit a rocket single to left center and also ate an entire horse... Somebody get this guy a slab of raw meat before he kills someone!

Via Puck Daddy, Traded on national pancake day, Dustin Penner has a weird past with 'cakes and Caps.

""""Kings’ Dustin Penner injures himself while eating a stack of delicious pancakes

Puck Daddy By Greg WyshynskiJan 9, 2012 10:55 AM

.

Things an NHL player should do when his weight and conditioning are constant points of contention and ridicule: Hit the exercise bike, hire a personal trainer, impose some dietary restrictions.

Things an NHL player shouldn't do when his weight and conditioning are constant points of contention and ridicule: Suffer an injury while eating a stack of "delicious pancakes."

Oh, Dustin Penner. From Rich Hammond of LA Kings Insider comes the story of the Los Angeles Kings forward who missed a game and is questionable for Monday night's tilt with the Washington Capitals because of Aunt Jemima's Revenge:

"I woke up fine, sat down to eat and it locked right up. It never happened to me before. I couldn't stand up. I was probably at the third stage of evolution. So my wife helped me get dressed, and then I drove to the rink here, to hope they could do some magic and get it opened up. Kinger [trainer Chris Kingsley] just looked at me and said, 'Go home.' So I got some treatment and went home.

"Apparently it's one of those mysterious things, where you can throw it out (from) sneezing. I just leaned over to dip into some delicious pancakes that my wife made. It's just like it [the pain] wraps around you and squeezes. … So it was disappointing. Hopefully it's just an isolated incident, and not something that's going to become chronic."

Or else he'll have to switch to waffles …

The evolution joke makes us think Penner can have a laugh about this stuff; obviously, we don't want to see a guy already struggling through this season suffer through a back injury.

[ Y! Health: Back disorders, symptoms and treatments ]

Not to get too syrupy here, but we're rooting for the guy, even though the odds are stacked against him.

From David Staples of the Edmonton Journal, who hipped us to the story and obviously saw a lot of Penner:

Penner was a good player while he was in Edmonton, even as he drove some crazy with his seemingly languid style of play. I saw him as a smart but lumbering player, not a lazy bones. If he gets healthy, he can help the Kings.

Credit to Penner for telling the truth about how he got injured in this case, as he had to know his critics would feast on such an anecdote.

As Staples notes, and as so many of us are painfully familiar with, back injuries can occur through the simplest of activities: Getting out of bed, tying one's shoes, lifting a child.

Or eating a plate of pancakes.

We eagerly anticipate Dustin Penner's public safety video to be shown at all Los Angeles area IHOPs about the dangers of pancake consumption.""""

Here's the original link.http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/kings-dustin-penner-injures-himself-while-eating-stack-155530523.html

CAPS Trade Deadline: Buyers, and Givers

As we approach tomorrow's 3:00pm NHL trade deadline, we can't help but wonder what moves George Mcphee will make to improve the team.

I have 3 things in mind that need to happen if the Caps are going to make a playoff push and build for the future. It will take buying and...giving to make it happen. I'll break them down in "my" order of importance.

#1 - "Give" away Erat:

George Mcphee made a horrible mistake when he acquired Martin Erat....or let's say Martin Erat's contract at last years deadline. He's signed through the 2014-15 season and has a cap hit of about $4.5 million annually. Erat has demanded trades publically multiple times since the beginning of the season and his play has been quite awful. He has been lazy on the ice, taking game changing penalties and just has no will to play for this team. His 1 goal (an empty netter) will make it difficult to move him but that's why Mcphee has to "give" him away. Even if it's a 5th round pick or he's added into a package deal for free, his money in the cap and spot on the ice needs filled by someone who wants to be there.

#2 - Stay at Home Defenseman:

Everyone knows the Caps lack one or two shutdown defenders. Andrew MacDonald could be the perfect partner for Mike Green. He is (by far) the leagues leading shot blocker and his smart positioning and decisions with the puck along with his crisp passing out of the zone, is EXACTLY what Green and the Caps need. This would give the Caps two defensive pairings they can count on to clock major ice-time in the playoffs. He is a very low cap hit (around $550,000) but will demand a big payday at the end of the season. He's worth handing over a 1st round pick and maybe a little more.

#3 - Scoring Left Winger to Play With 8 and 19:

One name comes to mind and he is actually married to George McPhee's God-daughter. That name is Matt Moulson. The three time 30+ goal scorer is big and incredibly good at using his size to screen the goalie and punch in rebounds in the crease. Seems like he'd be a nice compliment to the Great 8. He's affordable to re-sign and with Buffalo on the complete rebuild path, McPhee could package up a current roster player, a prospect and a pick for Moulson and another Buffalo player. Maybe like Neuvirth, Shmidt and a 2nd round pick for Moulson and veteran goaltender Jaroslav Halak...? Just an idea.

The Caps also have a promising prospect in Kuznetsov who will more then likely join the squad in the next few days. McPhee will have to have around $900,000 in cap space to sign him. This deadline will be all about crunching the numbers and giving what they have to to win a cup in the next few seasons. The Caps core guys can't keep waiting for prospects to develop. They need the pieces now!

**Oh wait..just recieved news yhat the Caps pickrd up Dustin Penner! Nvm on the Moulson deal.

Go Caps!

Zach Hart
Shades of Red

OLYMPICS: Medal Count - Day 5

Here's your top 5 in the medal count after day 5"


Germany - Gold - 6, Silver - 1, Bronze - 1, Total - 8


Canada - Gold - 4, Silver - 4, Bronze - 2, Total - 10


Norway - Gold - 4, Silver - 3, Bronze - 5, Total - 12


Netherlands - Gold - 4, Silver - 2, Bronze - 4, Total - 10


United States - Gold - 3, Silver - 1, Bronze - 5, Total - 9


What hockey fan's have been waiting for will begin tomorrow morning (our time) when in Men's Hockey, Team US will faceoff against Team Slovakia!


Let's Go Team U.S.A. !!!!


Zach Hart
Shades of Red